Long-term electricity price forecast for Nordic countries – Nordic Energy Price Outlook
The electricity market is rapidly changing due to energy transition, changes in production structure, and large investments. The electricity price forecast, Nordic Energy Price Outlook, prepared by Sweco’s experts, offers a thorough and diversified analysis of how wholesale electricity prices may evolve in Finland and other Nordic countries over the coming decades.
Long-term electricity price analysis helps to understand how the growth in electricity demand, development of production capacity such as wind power capacity growth, electrification, the role of nuclear power, transmission connections, and fuel and emission allowance prices affect future electricity prices. The analysis covers the years 2025–2055 and is based on up-to-date information and market trends.
The electricity market forecast also provides insights into the differences between various electricity price zones and their development, considers supply and cross-border transmission connections developments, and capture prices of different production types.
Electricity price forecast to support decision making
Which factors will drive electricity prices in the Nordic region in the coming decades? We combine quantitative modeling and Sweco’s market experts’ analytical insights to provide a clear picture of future price risks, understand the impact of different scenarios, obtain information to optimize investment strategy, procurement, or production plans. Sweco’s Nordic Energy Price Outlook offers a comprehensive electricity price forecast for the coming decades, supporting strategic decision-making and providing certainty in an electricity market changing faster than ever.
The forecast examines the development of wholesale electricity prices under various scenarios until year 2055. The modeling utilizes Sweco’s own electricity market model, which considers:
Up-to-date information and market trends
Development of electricity demand, including electrification, data centers, electric boilers, and hydrogen production
Growth in wind, solar, and nuclear power capacity
The role of hydropower and weather variations
Development of transmission networks and cross-border connections
Sweco’s electricity market model covers the entire European electricity market on an hourly basis across 38 electricity price zones. The model optimizes the system’s annual costs and is based on assumptions about electricity demand and flexibility, production capacity and availability, storage and transmission, marginal costs, and technical constraints of production technologies, as well as fuel and emission allowance prices.
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