Hydrogen projects in Finland are currently progressing above all where renewable hydrogen production, buyers’ willingness to pay, regulation and infrastructure meet. Technology is not the biggest bottleneck – the decisive factor is whether there are a sufficient commercial base and long-term demand for the project.

Finland has many of the ingredients needed for a strong hydrogen and e-fuels market: renewable electricity potential, biogenic CO₂ sources, industrial ports and access to European demand.

The hydrogen project pipeline is long, but only a few projects have moved close to construction. The challenge is not only technological. Many individual Power-to-X technologies are already known, although large integrated value chains are still developing.

The bigger issue is commercial: who is willing to pay the hydrogen projects in Finland, how much, and under what conditions? Sweco’s analysis shows that profitability depends heavily on electricity cost, CAPEX, infrastructure needs and market willingness-to-pay.

This is the “missing money” problem. Production costs for renewable hydrogen and e-fuels are still often higher than what many buyers can currently justify. Regulation is therefore making much of the heavy lifting: creating demand, narrowing the price gap and giving buyers a reason to move before pure market economics would.

Hydrogen demand is emerging from several sectors, but not all demand is equally bankable

Industrial hydrogen demand is real and offers scale, especially in steel, refineries, fertilizers and chemicals. However, liquidity is more uneven than in compliance-led fuel markets. Buyers often compare renewable hydrogen or derivatives against fossil alternatives plus carbon costs, so the green premium needs to be supported by regulation, customer demand or the ability to pass costs downstream.

Shipping is one of the more promising early markets because regulation is already changing the economics of fossil marine fuels. FuelEU Maritime and the EU ETS create a compliance-driven willingness-to-pay for lower-emission alternatives, making e-methanol, e-ammonia and selected e-LNG use cases relevant. E-methanol has gained traction because technology and fuel-handling concepts are moving forward, while e-ammonia depends more heavily on safety approvals and bunkering infrastructure.

Aviation has one of the clearest long-term demand signals. ReFuelEU Aviation introduces a dedicated synthetic aviation fuel sub-mandate from 2030, making eSAF strategically attractive. However, production is more complex and depends on both renewable hydrogen and CO₂ from biogenic or other eligible sources, which means projects need secure CO₂ supply agreements and fuel offtake agreements.

Heavy-duty transport is more mixed, though the picture is shifting quickly. Hydrogen and e-fuels must compete with other low-carbon options, but renewable-fuel obligations under RED III and national quota schemes are starting to create real demand here too, not only in shipping and aviation. E-methane is proving to be a practical route to market: as a drop-in substitute for fossil LNG, it can reach customers through existing refuelling networks without new vehicles or stations, and this has already translated into long-term, large-volume offtake agreements between Finnish P2X pioneers Nordic Ren-Gas and P2X Solutions and international buyers.

Where does the market move first and which sector will accelerate the hydrogen projects in Finland?

Most likely where regulation, infrastructure and buyer willingness-to-pay overlap. Shipping and aviation are often highlighted first because compliance obligations create clear demand – but recent deal activity shows heavy-duty road transport, particularly e-methane routes that reuse existing LNG infrastructure, moving at least as fast in practice. Industrial hydrogen remains important, but project bankability will depend strongly on the specific buyer, contract structure and ability to bridge the price gap.

For Finnish projects, the question is therefore not only what can be produced. It is what can be sold at a price and risk level that supports investment. Finland can become a meaningful supplier of renewable hydrogen and e-fuels to European markets. But the first projects will move where the missing money can be bridged through credible offtake, targeted regulation, support mechanisms and value chains where buyers have a real reason to pay the green premium.

Hydrogen project planning requires not only technical feasibility, but also an understanding of market, regulatory and infrastructure risks. Sweco supports projects with comprehensive assessments ranging from concept design to permitting, infrastructure and investment profitability analysis.

Author: Tuukka Rautiainen, Leading Expert, Sweco